• Slideshow: Iran Election
• Play Video   Video: Raw Video: Gunfire erupts at Iran rally AP
• Play Video   Iran Video: Shah's son sees new era in Iran Reuters
  

Iran regime faces public anger: will it survive?

CAIRO – Iran's Islamic regime has survived a devastating war with Iraq, strong American sanctions and international isolation in its 30 years of power. It has seen reformist and hard-line presidents come and go, with barely a flinch.

But now, public anger over the disputed election has given Iran's ruling elite a challenge of a new and unsettling kind: A growing opposition movement with apparent broad backing, headed by a leader who is one of their own — and doesn't seem intimidated.

Iran's clergy-guided system does not appear in immediate danger. But the ruling clerics are paying close attention to the street anger — the same popular unrest they harnessed themselves three decades ago to bring down the shah in their 1979 revolution.

There is a chance — just a chance — that the recent protests could transform into a serious, credible movement similar to an opposition party in another country, fundamentally changing a system now ruled by an all-powerful and untouchable theocracy.

There is also a chance, more likely, that to avoid such an outcome, the clerics will either jettison, or at minimum rein in and weaken, the president they have supported until now, hard-liner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

For that to happen, the protests would almost certainly need to be sustained, spread to other cities and most importantly, attract enough clerical support to create high-level rifts.

"No one is very sure where it will go next," said Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy in Washington. But she says: "They have forced the regime to take a step back."

Despite that, the likelihood that Iran's clergy-ruled system will undergo a radical change remains dim.

Many Iranians feel strong kinship with the revolution, its heirs and the system they created, and are reluctant to do anything that would trigger bloody upheaval again. Ahmadinejad has broad support among the poor and pious, who also venerate the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Yet Ahmadinejad's hard-line jousts with the West, his mishandling of the economy and, in particular, what many view as a blatant theft of the election, seem to be turning off growing segments of the middle class.

The recent protests are different from the country's last unrest, student-led protests in 1999 that fizzled. In particular, this go-round has attracted some of Iran's middle class, the same group that changed a religious movement in 1979 into a strong revolutionary force.

The leader of the street protesters this time, rival presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi, is also different from the reformist student leaders of 1999. He is no sideline player or amateur but an experienced politician who was prime minister in the 1980s during Iran's tough war with Iraq, when Khamenei was president.

Mousavi does not appear intimidated by the supreme leader or his inner circle. Indeed, he can take his complaints right to them, and he can make their life rough if he begins to criticize the clerical system as complicit in protecting Ahmadinejad.

There's no way to know if Mousavi will challenge, or would even want to challenge, the Islamic system itself. He is a product of the revolution, never known as a reformer in the past. Yet he has already gone further than many expected.

The country's clerics may hold the final word.

Iran's power structure has always been opaque. Essentially it consists of a broad base of clerics supporting a ruling elite of high-level clerics, who have the power through various institutions to overturn the decisions any president makes.

At their top is the country's supreme leader — Khamenei, who controls the armed forces, other security forces and the nuclear program. He serves as final arbiter.

But even Khamenei must be careful lest he lose the support of the clerics who empower him. A rift in the high levels of the clerical structure could endanger even him, the supremacy of his position and the clerical system itself.

Some clerics in key institutions like the Guardian Council — which vets the election — are lockstep backers of Khamenei. But others, such as former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, a fierce critic of both Khamenei and Ahmadinejad, are wild cards.

The concessions that have already come from the clerics, especially the announcement to re-examine the vote tally, show that at least some clerics want to keep the protests from escalating.

So far, Mousavi has made no direct threat to the Islamic system.

But he hinted at it during a massive rally of supporters Monday, telling them to stand up to "this astonishing charade ... Otherwise, nothing will remain of people's trust in the government and the ruling system."

In Iran's post-revolutionary history, protesters have almost never crossed that red line and demonstrated against the ruling clerics themselves.

If they do, it would leave the clerics in a difficult spot: Choosing between making political concessions to reformists, or watching the unrest grow to ever-more dangerous levels.

Revolutionary change like that is still far away and may never come. But the possible contours of the once-unthinkable are now taking shape.

______________

EDITOR'S NOTE — Sally Buzbee is the Mideast Editor for The Associated Press based in Cairo. Associated Press writer Brian Murphy contributed to this report.

By Liz Hazelton
16th June 2009

 

 

Foreign media banned from leaving offices to cover turmoil...
... but Iranians still dodge censors to post updates online
Iranian legislators concede some disputed ballot boxes still be recounted
Seven shot dead after election protest rally ends in violence

 

Iran today banned foreign media from the streets of Tehran as thousands of pro-democracy protesters and supporters of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad staged rival protests.

The President's rally drew huge crowds in the Iranian capital's Azadi (Freedom) Square where people waved banners and shouted slogans for much of the day.

Supporters of Ahmadinejad's defeated opponent Mirhossein Mousavi had been warned to stay away by their own leader after seven were shot dead last night.

But as the afternoon wore on the crowds once more gathered in a northern part of the city prompting fears of further violence.

Counter rally: Thousands of Ahmadinejad's supporters on the streets of Tehran today

Conservative: The vast majority of Ahmadinejad's supporters are drawn from the poorer parts of Iranian society

Events in Tehran took a dramatic turn as Iranian legislators made a potentially significant concession to recount some disputed ballot boxes.

What this means in practice is unclear. There were no details of who would carry out the process - or when and where it would took place.

And though the recount may mark a less hardline approach, it was matched with a draconian crackdown on foreign media.

Journalists have been ordered to stay in their offices and not to attempt to report on the protests taking place in the capital.

The ban has not stopped Mousavi's millions of young supporters using increasingly sophisticated methods to dodge the censors and post updates online.

The streets of Tehran were quiet earlier today after gunmen loyal to the newly re-elected Ahmadinejad opened fire on a huge rally that at one point was five-miles long.

But as the day wore on, tensions once more began to rise.

Mousavi's spokesman urged people to keep off the streets. 'Mousavi... urged his supporters not to attend today's rally to protect their lives,' he said. 'The moderates' rally has been cancelled.'

The protest rally had been due to start two hours after a gathering for Ahmadinejad supporters. The president himself did not attend as he is at a meeting in Russia.

State sanctioned: The government made pictures of the pro-Ahmadinejad rally available despite the clampdown on foreign media

This morning the Guardian Council, Iran's top legislative body, announced it would recount some votes from Friday's election won by hardline incumbent Ahmadinejad.

The council, which is made up of 12 senior clerics, had been instructed by Iran's Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to investigate allegations of voter fraud by Iran's Supreme Leader.

However, the group rejected Mousavi's appeal for the election to be annulled outright. 

Abbas Ali Kadkhodaei, spokesman for the Guardian Council, confirmed the recount would take place but said it would be limited to voting sites where candidates claimed there were irregularities.

After a night of violence, the establishment attempted to reaffirm it once iron grip on the country - and the images being beamed around the world.

The Culture Ministry announced journalists could continue to work in their offices but that it was cancelling press accreditation for foreign media.

Defiant: Despite violence on Monday night, Mousavi's supporters still took to the streets to demand a new election

Small scale: Pro-Mousavi demonstrators - wearing his trademark green - were also out but protests were no-where near as large as yesterday's rally

'No journalist had permission to report or film or take pictures in the city,' an official said. 

The move was prompted by extraordinary scenes - from the 300,000-strong Mousavi demonstration to its bloody aftermath - which captivated the world.

Photographs of one dead man sprawled on the ground with blood from a head wound spilling onto the pavement caused outrage. 

In his first public comment on the Iranian election, President Barack Obama said he was 'deeply troubled by the violence I've been seeing on TV.'

Although he said he had no way of knowing whether the election was valid, Mr Obama praised protesters and Iranian youth who questioned the results.

'The world is watching and is inspired by their participation, regardless of what the ultimate outcome of the election was,' he said.

Last night lines of protesters held aloft green flags  -  Mousavi's campaign colours  -  and photographs of him across the city from Azadi Square.

Violence: A woman attends to her injuries after being attacked during violence in Tehran on Monday

In the hours before the bursts of shooting, there had been wild cheers and chants of Allahu Akbar (God is greatest) as Mousavi stood on the roof of a car to tell the crowd: ' The vote of the people is more important than Mousavi or any other person.'

His wife, Zahra Rahnavard, said protests over the election result would continue. 'We will stand until the end,' she insisted.

As riot police with sticks looked on, one man shouted: 'We fight, we die, we will not accept this vote rigging.'

It was Mousavi's first public appearance since the polls closed, and he launched his claims that the vote was rigged to re-elect the hard-line president.

In an extremely rare nod to anti-government protests, brief clips of the march were shown on state television yesterday.

Green revolution: A supporter of pro-reform candidate Mirhossein Mousavi shows off his bloodied hand after protests turned violent

It appeared that Iran's rulingclerics had opened the door for the demonstration - even giving it news coverage - in a possible bid to avoid more street clashes and seek some breathing room in the growing confrontation.
Ahmadinejad had been returned to power with 63 per cent of the vote.
However, statistics circulating on Iranian blogs and websites claimed Mousavi had in fact won 19.1million votes while Ahmadinejad came third with 5.7million. Some analysts said the speed of the count was highly suspicious. Almost 40million papers handwritten paper ballots were processed in a matter of hours.

DODGING THE CENSORS IN CYBERSPACE

Supporters of defeated Iranian presidential candidate Mirhossein Mousavi posted defiant messages on Twitter on Tuesday, calling for a second banned pro-Mousavi rally to go ahead and offering security updates.

Web sites such as Twitter and Facebook have become a focal point for young, urban Iranians opposed to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who defeated Mousavi in Friday's presidential election and whose government controls the state media.

'Alert: Mousavi march still on. 5PM,' read one short message, or 'tweet', on Twitter.

'Good luck at the march. Don't take cars, they will be waiting for you when you return to them,' read another, as tweets on the subject of the Iranian election poured onto the site every few seconds.

Extraordinary scenes: Admadinejad's opponent Mirhossein Mousavii addresses massive crowds on Monday

The Iranian government blocked SMS text messages during polling after opposition candidates used them to galvanise key young voters during the fiercely contested election campaign, and Tehran residents were still unable to send SMSs on Monday.

The BBC's Persian service was also blocked.

Social networking site Facebook, which has about 150,000 members in Iran, said on Monday it had had reports that some users in Iran were having difficulties accessing Facebook.

'This is disappointing, especially at a time when citizens are turning to the Internet as a source of information about the recent election,' it said in a statement.

According to Internet censorship monitor OpenNet Initiative, Iranians began taking to the Internet in droves during the 1997-2005 presidency of Mohammad Khatami, when dozens of independent publications were shut down and journalists jailed.

In a 2007 report on Iran, the OpenNet Initiative estimated there were about 400,000 blogs in Farsi, as publishing on the Internet exploded, despite what it called 'one of the most extensive technical filtering systems in the world'.

Crackdown: A man lies on the back of a taxi, after being seriously injured by gunfire during a rally in Tehran against President Ahmadinejad

More than 23million Iranians in a country of 70million -- more than 60 percent of whom are under the age of 20 -- have access to the Internet.

Facebook was shut off in Iran on May 23, joining political and human-rights web sites which had already been blocked. The ban was lifted on May 26, following strong criticism from moderate candidates.

Mousavi has almost 48,000 supporters on his main Facebook page.

Ahmadinejad also has a page with 2,615 fans, while the 'I bet I can find 1,000,000 people who dislike Mahmoud Ahmadinejad!' group has more than 57,000 members.